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To Stockpile Ore or Not To Stockpile Ore
As was updated in our recent post on material prices since launch:
@CM_Lore: "@dopplegager @TheCrafticus The Garrison was giving too much ore. That was hotfixed yesterday. Will take some time to see the effects." 2:31 PM - 26 Nov 2014
With "yesterday" in that tweet being November 25th, as of this writing the garrison mining nodes have been nerfed for about 4 days. To determine whether it would be worth buying up some of the "cheap" ore now in preparation for an eventual theoretical price increase due to a lowering supply I thought I'd check the numbers.
As you can see the supply of Blackrock Ore on my server has definitely decreased since the nerf. Its fallen in volume about 2/3 from a high of around 15,000 pieces to around 5,000 pieces. Although the amount of ore available has still been swinging as high as 10,000 recently.
On the whole thought the numbers are going down not up and that might indicate an overall decrease and potential increase in prices.
As it is right now I could pick up around 500 or so Blackrock Ore at 1g or under. I think I might just go ahead and do that because worst case scenario I don't end up needing it and I wait for it to increase and resell it.
Best case I hold onto it and use it for my alt as they start building ore-hungry garrison buildings. 500g isn't really that much of a risk
True Iron Ore
True Iron Ore on my server has been on a pretty steady decline since the nerf on November 25th. It has also lowered in volume about 2/3 from a high of 15,000 pieces to right around 5,000 pieces.
The price for True Iron Ore seems to be moving up slightly to around 1g 25s or so from a low or around 1g.
given the quite dramatic decline in ore availability I don't expect the quantity of True Iron Ore to increase any time soon. That would indicate that there is a chance it will either increase in price or at least stay stable.
It appears that on my server finding True Iron Ore for anything under 1g is going to be tough. At around 2g I could be starting to get some larger stack sizes.
It could be that I've missed out on the chance to get True Iron Ore for really cheap prices. I might pick up what I can for 2g and under and call it good.
ConclusionI'm not really a huge stockpiler. I tend to believe that prices over time will go down and that getting materials at a price that could still go down is a bad idea.
That said this nerf has created a bit of a special circumstance and it may ba a good chance to get mats at the lowest price they may be for a while.
So a bit of a turn around for me as far as stockpiling this ore. I would have likely been able to grab a bit more if I had acted a bit more quickly but I'm not too worried about it.
If you do decide to stockpile be sure to leave a few of the cheaper ore on the auction house so people will undercut it and keep giving you cheap ore.
UpdateSo I went ahead and purchase ore under 1g or so for Blackrock Ore and under 2g for True Iron Ore.
My Blackrock Ore purchases look like this:
My True Iron Ore purchases look like this:
I purchased a total of 2,060 Blackrock Ore for around 2,290g and 1,426 True Iron Ore for around 5,179g.
Again I'll have to watch and see how pricing goes. For me spending around 7,500g was worth the risk that the prices might never go up because I'll likely be able to use it over the expansion as I get more alts needing to do garrison profession turn-ins.
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