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9.09.2012

Robes of Insight Now Being Duplicated?



I've had a sneaking suspicion lately that with all the illicit BOE mount duping that's likely been going on on the servers lately (you've all heard the level 1's in trade chat trying to sell Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger for 15k) that it would only be a matter of time before the dupers moved onto other high-value items as targets for their market-ruining duping (duplicating items by illicit means such as hacks, bugs. etc.).

I'm afraid I may have been right. Read on past the jump for more.

Next Victim?

The latest possible victim of duping is the Robes of Insight a very sought after transmog item that I've noticed showing up on my server far more often then I'd like. I had a reader on our Facebook page mention that they saw two Robe of Insight on their server for 5k each.

I advised against purchasing them as I had a hunch that Robes of Insight had started being duplicated. I decided to do a bit of research on The Undermine Journal and was disheartened at the results which strongly indicate that not only are Robes of Insight being duplicated but the amount of Robes for sale is likely to increase.


Robes of Insight Global Page on The Undermine Journal


The Evidence

If you look at the Robes of Insight's global page on The Undermine Journal (image above) you can see a very pronounced rise in the number of Robes of Insight that are being listed on the auction house since mid-May (as far back as the graph goes).

In the EU in mid-May, 2012 up until early June, 2012 there were around 105 Robes listed for sale. By September 5, 2012 that number had ballooned to 199, an almost doubling of the supply in just under 4 months.

In the US the story is much the same. At the end of May, 2012 there were around 130 Robes of Insight for sale on US realms. By the end of August 2012 that number had grown to 249, an increase of just over 90%, before settling in around 225 Robes in early August 2012.

Ban Waves Affecting Supply?

So what about possible ban waves which often happen around major patches? Is there any evidence that a possible ban wave around the September 28, 2012 Patch 5.0.4 could have affected the supply of these possibly duped Robes of Insight?

If so that would give further credence to the possibility that some of the Robes were being sold by dupers who were very likely breaking the World of Warcraft Terms of Use (TOU).

Let's look.

The Math

In the US servers, in days before Patch 5.0.4 and the possible ban wave, there was a peak of 245 Robes of Insight on the servers on August 25, 2012. After the patch? In the US, Robes auctions had dropped from 245 on August 25, 2012 down to 174 on August 30, 2012 a decrease of just over 40%.

In the EU the numbers peaked at about 190 Robes on August 25, 2012 and had dropped down to 154 on August 29th, 2012. A decrease of around 23%.

Is this incontrovertible proof that those who may have been banned were selling the Robes? No. But it is another data point that leans in that direction.

What Does It Mean?

So, as gold-makers what are we to do with the information that Robes of Insight, a highly sought after transmog item, may indeed be being duplicated by unscrupulous individuals in order to do nothing more than bilk players out of their hard earned gold?

Unfortunately, the best advice I could give anyone was the same advice I gave to the reader on our Facebook page: Stay away.

If the Robes of Insight (and possibly many other high-value items we might not even realize at the moment) are indeed being duplicated that means that the overall value of the items will only go down as more and more duplicated items enter the market.

We've seen that exact thing with the over-saturated market for duplicated Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger and many other BOE mounts.

My best advice is if you think the items is illicit, if you feel the item was likely duplicated somewhere along it's life-cycle than steer clear.

Also, be sure to report individuals you feel may be trying to sell these potentially duplicated items. While it may seem like a hassle it's the only way we can tell Blizzard we don't want these types of individuals eroding the value of legitimate items as well as lessening the overall game experience for players who simply want to play the game the way is was intended to be played level and enjoy themselves.

I personally have a report text file that I use to copy from to make reporting individuals easier. To report an individual you suspect of duping simply right-click on their name in trade chat and select "Report Player For: > Cheating" and write your report. (Be sure to include the time their message appeared in trade chat.)

This is the one that I use to report mount dupers:

"This player is selling BOE mounts in trade chat for far too cheap. I believe these items are duped. Please help remove this from the game. Time: "

Use Your Brain

One thing I want to emphasize here is that these are my own thoughts on the matter. I think each person should do their own research and come to their own conclusions on whether they feel items like the Robes of Insight may be being duplicated and how they will react to that knowledge, should they choose to believe it.

By keeping your eyes open to the way things like this affect the in-game economy you can possibly save yourself the heartache of having to watch what you thought were great investments devalue right before your eyes.

Have you noticed very rare and/or expensive items showing up for far below market value on your realm? If so, what items?

Additional Reading:




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9 comments:

  1. I'm glad you're sharing the suspicion, and you may be right, but at the very least, if these are being duped, it's not nearly on the same scale as the Crimson Deathchargers.

    With the Crimson Deathcharger, it went from a supply of 99 to a supply of over 1200 in less than a month. The price also dropped very steeply in that same time, from about 15k to less than 6k.

    With Robes of Insight, the supply went from 169 to 249 in a little over three months. During that same time, the price dropped from about 12k to about 10k. The evidence is certainly not as overwhelming as it was with the Deathcharger.

    That's not to say they are or aren't being duplicated. The only ones who know for sure are the ones doing the duping and, hopefully, Blizzard. I'm just saying the evidence isn't quite as compelling, and if they are being duped, the scale is certainly more minor.

    That said, it's always good to share your suspicions about duping. It's also generally advisable to be cautious. Remember the age-old saying: "If it seems too good to be true, it probably is."

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  2. I can't say one way or the other but I do have to say I think you're jumping the gun on the duping suspicion. Here's my thought process on it:

    As you've pointed out above there was no marked, sudden increase in stock. We've seen with the Deathchargers that dupers won't hesitate to flood markets and kill price so why was the increase so gradual over the past few months?

    Well, what months were they? Summer. The increase in supply gradually grew over the summer months. And when did the supply decrease? I know it's the week schools and University classes around here started.

    At the time of this comment posting the most "flooded" realm in the US has three Robes of Insight on it (Nagrand Alliance) and I just can't attribute something to duping when it's more likely to be the cause of increased summer playtime.

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    1. I'd love to be wrong about this. That might mean the prices would hold. That said, it took about a month or two for dupers to kick in with the number of mount dupes that we see today. Only time will tell.

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  3. I don't any data to support this, but i'm under impression that people are more interested in aquiring rare mounts than cool transmog items. Especially when we talk about a mount (Deathcharger) related to Arthas, which is a popular figure in Warcraft universe. I guess that's why we see such high amounts of them on AH/trade. While Robes of Insight look really cool, i doubt there is such demand to justify dupers flooding the realms with them.

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  4. Maybe at this moment dupers are just testing the market to see if it's worth duping rare transmog items.

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  5. I don't think this is duping. There is no sudden rise in quantity. The robe drops while leveling. Dragon Soul was released 10 months ago. People are playing their twinks alot and most of them know that this robe is an expensive transmog item. While at the same time, most buyers who want this robe already have them (transmogrification is also 10 months old).
    These graphs show just usual market activity: less buyers + more available quantity => price drops
    I buy cheap robes and sell them on horde and alliance on my server for ~10k. I have 3 robes by now and no buyer since months. Going to lower the price to 5k.

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  6. This is not duping. This is a result of increased leveling activity by people bored with raiding and lookig for something else to do. As a result everyone I know is leveling up new toons to get them to 85 prior to the onset of MOP. In addition, people that were sitting on Robes that they had bought on speculation or had just kept in storage are liquidating stock to raise gold before MOP drops. I dont think your argument holds water.

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  7. In my opinion, I don't see dupers bothering with Tmog items. While Robes of Insight are a very nice Tmog item, there are many other pieces of Tmog out there, like Teebu's. The other high value items aren't seeing any real increase in quantity. Dupers target high volume items, typically those with higher value as well. While Robes of Insight are higher value (though nothing compared to a mount), their sales volume is too low to justify duping.

    More likely, as Faid said, it's a result of more players in the game during the summer months (kids on summer break) and many other regular players leveling alts. I've seen an small increase in quantity of other rare items on the AH on my server, but I don't believe it's duping or automatically think that. And in the case of my server, being a very high pop server, the quantity of Robes of Insight have never been above 4 at any one time. I've seen that many available at one time on the AH well before this summer as well.

    Also, don't forget, some people could have been stashing the Robes away for later, thinking their value would increase. When they didn't they started selling them off, which would also lend to the increase in quantity on the AH. TUJ ONLY sees what is on the AH... unfortunately due to that, an increase of supply on the AH doesn't automatically mean possible duping. It just means more are up for sale now and there are many reasons that could be due to.

    While there is always a possibility of duping, I'm really doubting Tmog (with maybe the exception of Teebu's, but even that would be a stretch due to low sales volume) would be a viable dupe target. It just doesn't have the high sales volume to bother with.

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