I've had a sneaking suspicion lately that with all the illicit BOE mount duping that's likely been going on on the servers lately (you've all heard the level 1's in trade chat trying to sell Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger for 15k) that it would only be a matter of time before the dupers moved onto other high-value items as targets for their market-ruining duping (duplicating items by illicit means such as hacks, bugs. etc.).
I'm afraid I may have been right. Read on past the jump for more.
The latest possible victim of duping is the Robes of Insight a very sought after transmog item that I've noticed showing up on my server far more often then I'd like. I had a reader on our Facebook page mention that they saw two Robe of Insight on their server for 5k each.
I advised against purchasing them as I had a hunch that Robes of Insight had started being duplicated. I decided to do a bit of research on The Undermine Journal and was disheartened at the results which strongly indicate that not only are Robes of Insight being duplicated but the amount of Robes for sale is likely to increase.
|Robes of Insight Global Page on The Undermine Journal|
If you look at the Robes of Insight's global page on The Undermine Journal (image above) you can see a very pronounced rise in the number of Robes of Insight that are being listed on the auction house since mid-May (as far back as the graph goes).
In the EU in mid-May, 2012 up until early June, 2012 there were around 105 Robes listed for sale. By September 5, 2012 that number had ballooned to 199, an almost doubling of the supply in just under 4 months.
In the US the story is much the same. At the end of May, 2012 there were around 130 Robes of Insight for sale on US realms. By the end of August 2012 that number had grown to 249, an increase of just over 90%, before settling in around 225 Robes in early August 2012.
Ban Waves Affecting Supply?
So what about possible ban waves which often happen around major patches? Is there any evidence that a possible ban wave around the September 28, 2012 Patch 5.0.4 could have affected the supply of these possibly duped Robes of Insight?
In the US servers, in days before Patch 5.0.4 and the possible ban wave, there was a peak of 245 Robes of Insight on the servers on August 25, 2012. After the patch? In the US, Robes auctions had dropped from 245 on August 25, 2012 down to 174 on August 30, 2012 a decrease of just over 40%.
In the EU the numbers peaked at about 190 Robes on August 25, 2012 and had dropped down to 154 on August 29th, 2012. A decrease of around 23%.
Is this incontrovertible proof that those who may have been banned were selling the Robes? No. But it is another data point that leans in that direction.
What Does It Mean?
So, as gold-makers what are we to do with the information that Robes of Insight, a highly sought after transmog item, may indeed be being duplicated by unscrupulous individuals in order to do nothing more than bilk players out of their hard earned gold?
Unfortunately, the best advice I could give anyone was the same advice I gave to the reader on our Facebook page: Stay away.
If the Robes of Insight (and possibly many other high-value items we might not even realize at the moment) are indeed being duplicated that means that the overall value of the items will only go down as more and more duplicated items enter the market.
We've seen that exact thing with the over-saturated market for duplicated Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger and many other BOE mounts.
My best advice is if you think the items is illicit, if you feel the item was likely duplicated somewhere along it's life-cycle than steer clear.
Also, be sure to report individuals you feel may be trying to sell these potentially duplicated items. While it may seem like a hassle it's the only way we can tell Blizzard we don't want these types of individuals eroding the value of legitimate items as well as lessening the overall game experience for players who simply want to play the game the way is was intended to be played level and enjoy themselves.
I personally have a report text file that I use to copy from to make reporting individuals easier. To report an individual you suspect of duping simply right-click on their name in trade chat and select "Report Player For: > Cheating" and write your report. (Be sure to include the time their message appeared in trade chat.)
This is the one that I use to report mount dupers:
"This player is selling BOE mounts in trade chat for far too cheap. I believe these items are duped. Please help remove this from the game. Time: "
Use Your Brain
One thing I want to emphasize here is that these are my own thoughts on the matter. I think each person should do their own research and come to their own conclusions on whether they feel items like the Robes of Insight may be being duplicated and how they will react to that knowledge, should they choose to believe it.
By keeping your eyes open to the way things like this affect the in-game economy you can possibly save yourself the heartache of having to watch what you thought were great investments devalue right before your eyes.
Have you noticed very rare and/or expensive items showing up for far below market value on your realm? If so, what items?
- Strong Evidence Of Rampant Item Duplication In WoW by Power Word: Gold
- Robes of Insight's global page on The Undermine Journal
- Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger global page on The Undermine Journal
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