YOUR SOURCE FOR WORLD OF WARCRAFT GOLD-MAKING TIPS, TRICKS AND STRATEGIES

5.25.2011

16g New 4.2 Obsidium Shuffle Floor Price And Here's Why



Recent news from the Patch 4.2 Public Test Realm (PTR) that the vendor price for uncut uncommon Cataclysm gems has being reduced from 5 gold each to 50 silver (See "Patch 4.2 PTR: Uncut green gems vendor price reduced") has lead many to wonder: "What is the new vendor "price floor" of a 20 stack of Obsidium Ore?"

The answer to that question as well as some advice on what to do to prepare after the jump.

A Little History
Before Patch 4.1 the vendor price for cut uncommon Cataclysm gems was 9g each. This made price floor for a 20 stack of Obsidium Ore 54g (assuming that prospecting a 20 stack of Obsidium Ore will net you 6 uncommon Cataclysm gems).

Patch 4.1 dropped the vendor value of gems down to 75 silver. (See "It's Official: Cut Uncommon Cata Gems Vendor For 75 Silver In Patch 4.1".) While the cut gems now sold for very little the uncut uncommon Cayaclysm gems vendored for 5g each. This meant that the new price floor for a 20 stack of Obsidium Ore was now 30g.

Many jewelcrafters simply went about there business as before with the exception that they would now wait for ore to drop to 30g per stack rather then 54g per stack to be able to prospect "worry-free".

If the upcoming drop in price for uncut uncommon Cataclysm gems happens what is the new price floor for a stack of Obsidium Ore? At what price can jewelcrafters safely but up ore in order to prospect worry-free again?

The answer isn't as simple as it once was. I'm going to go through a few different scenarios in order to try to find an answer.

The Baseline
Let's start with the simplest baseline price floor which is simply cutting and vendoring the 6 uncommon Cataclysm gems we would obtain by prospecting a 20 stack of Obsidium Ore. At 75 silver a piece that would equal 4.5g per stack (3g if you sold the gems raw). 4.5g per stack is far less than the old 30g per stack. Let's see if we can do better.

Miners Ho!
One possibility that has been suggested in the community is that the new floor price is simply the vendor price of the bars that can be made with that ore. A 20 stack of Obsidium Ore is enough to create 10 Obsidium Bars. Currently Obsidium Bars vendor for 50s each. 10*0.5=5g. So we've increased out price floor from 4.5g to 5g. That is a gain of 50 silver per stack. Whoo!! We're rich! I think we can still do better.

Blacksmiths Unite
Perhaps we need to convert our 10 Obsidium Bars into something more valuable with Blacksmithing. Looking at the "Reagent for" tab for Obsidium Bars we can see the only thing Blacksmithing can use them for is Folded Obsidium. It takes (2) Obsidium Bars to make (1) Folded Obsidium that would vendor for 50s.

We could craft 5 pieces of Folded Obsidium which would vendor for a total of 2.5g per 20 stack of Obsidium Ore. Wait a minute. We seem to be going backwards.

But wait! Perhaps we can craft something with our newly acquired (5) Folded Obsidium. The "Reagent for" tab for Folded Obsidium shows us what we could craft with them. Looking down the lest it seems that Redsteel Boots has the highest vendor value for an items crafted with 5 Folded Obsidium. It vendors for 5g 3s 61c.

We have a winner (so far). We've increased out highest price floor by a whopping 3s 61c! We're up from 5g (vendoring 10 Obsidium Bars) to 5g 3s 61c (vendoring Redsteel Boots). Things are hoting up.

Engineers Represent
Engineers also make items with Obsidium Bars. Lets explore that avenue. We know from the mining section that we have 10 Obsidium Bars to work with. By again referencing the "Reagent for" tab for Obsidium Bars we see Engineers can craft (2-3) Handful of Obsidium Bolts with (2) Obsidium Bars.

This gives us enough materials to craft the recipe 5 times which would give us 10-15 Handful of Obsidium Bolts. Taking the average of 12.5 Handful of Obsidium Bolts times the vendor value of 32s 75c per Handful of Obsidium Bolts we get a total of 4g 9s 38c. Strike out! Bummer for our engineer buddies.

So far Blacksmiths are in the lead with 5g 3s 81c for a 20 stack of Obsidium Bars.

Return of the Alchemists
Lets let alchemists have their turn. Assuming a jewelcrafter has already prospected 6 uncommon Cataclysm gems from a 20 stack or ore, that is 1/3 of the reagents needed to craft (2) Shadowspirit Diamonds.

The vendor value for (1) uncut Shadowspirit Diamond is 5g. We craft (2) per transmute so that equals 10g. We only provided 1/3 of the reagents so 10/3=3.3333. So a total of 3g 33s 33c (repeating of course). Things aren't looking so hot in the alchemist camp. Sorry guys. back to fiddling with test tubes for you!

Jewelcrafters Strike Back
But the jewelcrafters aren't going to take this lying down! Let's show them how to rock a price floor proper! We obtain ~6 uncommon gems from a 20 stack of Obsidium Ore.We will be using one of every color in this exercise. Let's get rocking.

  • (1) Zephyrite - Cut and vendor for 75s.
  • (1) Alicite - 1/2 the reagents to craft and vendor an Alicite Pendant. (1) Alicite Pendant vendor price: 5g 50s 86c. (1) Jeweler's Setting price: 1g 50s (assuming no faction discount).  (5.5086/2)-(1.5/2) = 2.7543-0.75 = 2g 43c.
  • (1) Nightstone - 1/2 the reagents to craft and vendor a Nightstone Choker. (1) Nightstone Choker vendor price: 5g 50s 86c. (1) Jeweler's Setting price: 1g 50s (assuming no faction discount).  (5.5086/2)-(1.5/2) = 2.7543-0.75 = 2g 43c.
  • (1) Hessonite - 1/2 the reagents to craft and vendor a Hessonite Band. (1) Hessonite Band vendor price: 5g 50s 86c. (1) Jeweler's Setting price: 1g 50s (assuming no faction discount).  (5.5086/2)-(1.5/2) = 2.7543-0.75 = 2g 43c.
  • (1) Jasper - Reagent to craft and vendor a Jasper Ring. (1) Jasper Ring vendor price: 5g 50s 86c. (1) Jeweler's Setting price: 1g 50s (assuming no faction discount).  5.5086-1.5 = 2.7543-.75 = 4g 85c.
  • (1) Carnelian - 1/3 the reagents to craft and vendor Carnelian Spikes. (1) Carnelian Spikes vendor price: 19g 48s 24c. (3) Jeweler's Setting price: 4g 50s (assuming no faction discount).  (19.4824/3)-(4.5/3) = 6.4941-1.5 = 4g 99s 41c.

Adding the above 6 values together we get 15g 76s 55c. Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner. 

So there you have it folks. Spelled out in black and white. The new vendor floor price for Obsidium Ore is 15g 76s 55c. If I were a rounding man I would call it 16g.

Now that we have that number we can set our minds at ease and wait for the ore prices to drop down to 16g per 20 stack of Obsidium Ore.

What To Do Now?
If you are sitting on a mountainous pile of uncommon Cataclysm gems and you don't want to have to craft it all into jewelery in order to make half of what you could make now then be sure to vendor everything you haven't sold before patch 4.2 comes out. 

The exceptions to the above rule are Carnelians as I doubt the demand for Inferno Rubies will diminish as well we any gems you are making tremendous profits with (Hessonite and Nighstone perhaps). 

If it seems like you're experiencing déjà vu it's because this is the same advice I gave back before the first Obsidium Shuffle nerf. (See "The Obsidium Shuffle Is Dead - Patch 4.1 Uncommon Gem Vendor Price 75s".)

While I've discussed it before I have very little preparation to do for patch 4.2. Due to my adherence to a "just-in-time" philosophy when it comes to the jewelcrafting market I have under 1 stack of each uncommon Cataclysm gem. Before the Patch I'll simply vendor them uncut and be done. 

Stockpiling is not always your friend.

WTH Blizz?
I think it's pretty clear that Blizzard it targeting the profits of botters, hackers and gold farmers with these changes. If they can remove as much of the "easy money" as they can from the materials gathered from easily botted professions (mining and herbalism) than they disincentivize the farming. 

In this case all our profits are casualties of the misconduct of a small few companies/players who abuse the game for real-world profits.

Talking Points
  • How are you going to adjust to the new price floor of 16g?
  • What did we learn from the Patch 4.1 shuffle nerf that we can apply to the 4.2 nerf?
  • Why do you believe Blizzard is making these changes?


Like this post? Get even more Power Word: Gold: Subscribe via our RSS Feed. Subscribe to the Podcast via iTunes or Podcast RSS Feed. Follow us on Twitter. Like us on Facebook. Subscribe on Youtube. Join us on reddit.


13 comments:

  1. How much higher does the cap go when you have a JC, Alch, and Enchanter? I will look it up. On my server the shuffle is quite profitable. I can send Alicite to the AH for 7g or so. I get ore at around 27g but I am buying as soon as it posts, the mean price is more like 30. I started leveling the enchanter a couple days before this news. I think the prospecting game can still be profitable.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I understadn where the numbers come from, but I think it's a flawed process.

    You setting a floor price that is based on an equal distribution of which gems are prospected, which adds the RNG as a factor.

    A true floor price shouldn't have any random elements.

    I think the true floor using prospecting would be 6 Zephs x 75s ea = 4.5g as you are only guaranteed a minimum of 75s per gem since you could get all Zephs from 1 stack of ore and you would have been better off just smelting.

    So prospecting wouldn't always be adding value.
    What if you get 3 Zephs in 1 stack of ore?

    A true floor has no variables involved in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What about disenchanting the jewelcrafting items and selling the mats on the ah? Would that raise the bar a little?

    ReplyDelete
  4. You have an equal chance of getting any possible gem from a prospect. If you prospect enough ore, you will see an even return on each gem, so Flux's math is close enough.

    ReplyDelete
  5. i think, even though blizz says they will never attempt to "screw" with the economy of WoW, i believe they are trying to control the economy in WoW anyways. i say if they don't want botters and hackers then they make it so that any ip address not from a country with laws such as ours that pertain to wow (china...*cough cough*), should not be aloud to use our servers. im sure its much more complitcated but i think its wrong either way to change the market for wow players.

    ReplyDelete
  6. @Scott & JohnR: My definition for these calculations is the price you could obtain from items coming out of the ore and going straight to a vendor. Price floors take the auction house completely out of the equation.

    Sure any smart gold-maker would try to sell gems/dust etc on the auction house. What make the older price floors so attractive was you obtained all the profit without interacting with others at all. You could do it day and night and always get the same results because you were selling to the vendor.

    This new 16g price floor means if I wand Carnelians (for example) and I can find Obsidium Ore near 16g/stack than I have near zero risk in buying that ore because I could craft the extras into jewelery and vendor it and make my money back.

    @Cold I agree with Well Dressed Orc. Any model for pricing is just that, a model. In the past price floors have been much easier to calculate because all they involved was vendoring all the uncommons which all had the same value.

    We don't have that luxury any more. We have to move onto models that give us a rough idea of the ore value. If you simply prospected (1) stack of Obsidium Ore you would never get a equal distribution if gems.

    The more stacks you prospected the closer you would eventually come to the 16g price floor but that doesn't mean my model is invalid.

    If you believe you have a more valid/realistic model for a 4.2 price floor for Obsidium Ore I'd love to read about it.

    (I'm really interested to see *if* ore drops down to 16g per stack.)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Loving all the math!

    I added a little bit to it, hope you don't mind. It ended up reinforcing your point about the jewelry, but the vendor floor ends up being a bit different. I also included the new floor price for elmentium:

    http://breakthebankwow.com/2011/05/new-ore-vendor-floor-4-2/

    Enjoy

    ReplyDelete
  8. Much Cobalt Ore, I don't know that Obsidium will ever drop below 16g per stack, But for a completely different reason. The odd thing I've noticed on my realm is that Elementium Ore is often around 20-22g per stack already, while Obsidium remains around 25-28g per stack.

    With the new recipes in 4.2, that won't remain -- Elementium will be in much higher demand. As a Jeweler, I've been buying up the cheaper Elementium in boatloads for my prospecting, however once Obsidium becomes cheaper than Elementium again (due to the expected demand increase in 4.2), prospectors will likely switch back to Obsidium, driving up their demand.

    In conclusion, I suspect it will be awhile before Obsidium drops below 16g per stack, if ever. Then again, this all may change once we learn how epic gems will be acquired.

    ReplyDelete
  9. @Michael. The only problem there is that uncommon gems will be near useless now in large quantities, so the fact that elementium ore gives more than 3 times as many rare gems as obsidium means that obsidium will need to reach 1/3 the price in order to be worth the effort.

    The reason elementium is cheaper than obsidium currently is because it's floor value is 31.5g compared to 27.5 for elementium, which is based on strong uncommon gem values. These changes in 4.2 will push the buying factor of the ore away from the uncommon gem value and back into the rare gem value, where it belongs.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sorry, but I am confused with the JC #s.
    .75+3*2.43+4.85+4.9941 is 17.8841
    Where did the 15g 76s 55c come from?

    ReplyDelete
  11. @Hagu You are mistaking copper for silver.

    2g 43c = 2 gold 43 copper.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Personally, I like the idea of a floor price when it comes to buying ore/matierals, but it doesn't directly effect how I make most of my gold, which is through deing, or cutting gems. It's trial and error of course -- and I have some absolutely idiotic people on my server who try to price peopel out of the market by dropping prices lower than the current undercut price would be -- in order to push people out of the market but do so unsuccessfully so the overall rate of the whole market just plumets. As the next person tries the same trick and so on.

    The biggest part of my profits come from cutting blue gems, and disenchanting rings, etc. The essense sells well but I have to prepare to repost several times a day, as people are quick to undercut me.

    Dusts is a terrible market, and it rarely sells well. But even that market rarely drops below 2g and usually hovers around 5-7g per dust on my server, and consider each ring de's into multiple dusts, it is often more profitable to simply post the dust, than it is to vendor the rings.

    I know the vendor is attractive to people for convience, and I worry that people who usually vendor their gems will flood the gem or enchanting market, but I find myself praying they simply drop out of the market entirely.

    I'm not a wow millionare, not even close. But I do have 61k gold (the highest I've ever made) which is made slowly, but steadily over time. I usually make between 1-2k a day when all is said in done, provided the price for ore is right.

    ReplyDelete